Weekly Park Report: December 28 - January 3, 2026
This week's crowds weren't just heavy—they were historic. The December 28 through January 3 stretch registered busier than 98% of all days measured in 2025, with Hollywood Studios and EPCOT both hit...
New Year's Week Delivered the Busiest Days Disney World Has Seen All Year
This week's crowds weren't just heavy—they were historic. The December 28 through January 3 stretch registered busier than 98% of all days measured in 2025, with Hollywood Studios and EPCOT both hitting 10/10 Extreme levels. If you were there, you felt it. If you're planning a future holiday week visit, the data offers a sobering preview of what peak season actually looks like.
Week at a Glance
The resort averaged a 35-minute median wait this week—up from 30 minutes last week and a full 75% higher than the 20-minute median that held steady for the four weeks prior. This wasn't a gradual climb; it was a holiday surge that peaked and held. New Year's Eve split the resort dramatically: EPCOT hit 60-minute medians as guests flooded World Showcase for fireworks, while Magic Kingdom dropped to its lightest day of the week at 20 minutes. The headline: every park ran significantly hotter than baseline, with Hollywood Studios leading at 71% above its 6-week average.
Park-by-Park Analysis
Hollywood Studios: The Epicenter
Hollywood Studios earned its 10/10 Extreme rating with a 60-minute median—71% above its already-high 35-minute baseline. Monday delivered the peak at 75 minutes, suggesting guests prioritized Galaxy's Edge and Toy Story Land as their must-do experiences during the holiday window. Rise of the Resistance averaged nearly 100 minutes all week, double its typical 49-minute baseline. Tower of Terror ran at 84 minutes versus its usual 39. Even Star Tours, typically a walk-on fallback, averaged 25 minutes—more than triple its 8-minute norm.
Reliability added friction. Rise of the Resistance logged 10 separate downtime incidents across the week, while Toy Story Mania and Runaway Railway each went down multiple times. For guests building touring plans around rope-dropping Rise, those morning outages forced scrambles to backup attractions that were themselves running 80+ minute waits.
EPCOT: Festival Crowds Meet New Year's Eve
EPCOT matched Hollywood Studios with a 10/10 rating, its 35-minute median representing a 75% jump from the 6-week average. The International Festival of the Holidays drove foot traffic through World Showcase, but it was New Year's Eve that created the week's most dramatic single-day spike: 60-minute median waits as the park absorbed guests positioning for the midnight fireworks.
Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind averaged 133 minutes—89% above its 70-minute baseline—making virtual queue and Lightning Lane essential rather than optional. Soarin' ran at 65 minutes versus its typical 30. Even Figment, usually a 9-minute experience, averaged 20 minutes. Test Track's 17 downtime incidents compounded the challenge, removing a major capacity attraction from the lineup repeatedly throughout the week.
Animal Kingdom: Heavy but the Best Option
At 7/10 Heavy, Animal Kingdom registered as the "lightest" park this week—a relative term when Flight of Passage averaged 125 minutes, nearly double its 63-minute baseline. Monday's 60-minute median marked the park's peak, while New Year's Eve delivered a surprising 25-minute median as guests chose EPCOT and Magic Kingdom for their celebration.
DINOSAUR emerged as an unexpected pressure point, averaging 38 minutes versus its typical 18—a 113% increase suggesting guests who couldn't stomach the Pandora waits shifted to Dinoland. The park's earlier closing times meant crowds compressed into shorter windows, but strategic guests who arrived at rope drop and departed by early afternoon found the most manageable conditions.
Magic Kingdom: Packed but Predictable
Magic Kingdom's 9/10 Packed rating reflected its 25-minute median—67% above the 15-minute baseline but still the lowest raw number among the parks. The kingdom's massive capacity absorbed holiday crowds better than its smaller siblings. New Year's Eve delivered the week's lightest day at 20 minutes as guests dispersed to EPCOT for festivities, while Monday's 35-minute median marked the peak.
Classic attractions bore the brunt of demand. The Barnstormer—typically a 15-minute family placeholder—ran at 29 minutes. Operational challenges hit hard: Pirates of the Caribbean logged 14 downtime incidents, Haunted Mansion had 10, and Winnie the Pooh and Magic Carpets each recorded 18 incidents across the week.
Daily Pattern Analysis
| Day | MK | EPCOT | HS | AK | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 12/28 | 25 min | 30 min | 65 min | 50 min | Holiday week begins |
| Mon 12/29 | 35 min | 35 min | 75 min | 60 min | Week's peak day |
| Tue 12/30 | 25 min | 40 min | 70 min | 45 min | NYE eve buildup |
| Wed 12/31 | 20 min | 60 min | 60 min | 25 min | NYE: EPCOT surge |
| Thu 1/1 | 25 min | 25 min | 50 min | 35 min | New Year's Day dip |
| Fri 1/2 | 30 min | 30 min | 65 min | 45 min | Recovery begins |
| Sat 1/3 | 25 min | 30 min | 55 min | 45 min | Weekend holds steady |
Monday's resort-wide peak and Thursday's post-celebration dip follow predictable holiday psychology: guests front-loaded their must-do experiences early in the week, then recovered on New Year's Day. The EPCOT spike on December 31st—double its Sunday numbers—demonstrates how a single event can reshape an entire park's crowd profile while simultaneously relieving pressure elsewhere.
Reliability Report
Test Track frustrated guests 17 times this week, with morning outages particularly damaging given EPCOT's already-stressed attraction capacity. Guests who planned afternoon Test Track runs as their strategy often found it operating, but those targeting rope drop faced repeated disappointments. Figment's 18 incidents—unusual for a dark ride—removed what normally serves as a low-wait buffer during peak days.
At Magic Kingdom, the combination of Pirates, Haunted Mansion, and Winnie the Pooh outages stripped three reliable crowd-absorbing attractions from the lineup during the busiest week of the year. For families with young children counting on gentler options, the repeated closures forced pivots to longer-wait alternatives.
Next Week Outlook
Local schools remain on winter break through the end of this week, keeping regional attendance elevated. However, the first full week of January historically shows meaningful relief as holiday travelers return home. Expect Monday through Wednesday to offer the best conditions as the resort transitions from peak holiday mode. Hollywood Studios will likely remain the highest-demand park; guests with flexibility should prioritize Animal Kingdom mornings and Magic Kingdom evenings once the post-fireworks exit crowds thin. By mid-week, the 98th percentile crowds of this week should feel like a memory.
Plan Smarter
This week proved that holiday travel means accepting a fundamentally different Disney experience—or finding the hidden windows where patience pays off. Lightning Brain's crowd modeling identified Thursday's post-celebration dip and Wednesday's Magic Kingdom opportunity in advance. Available now at lightningbrain.app, and coming soon to the iOS App Store.