2025 Year In Review

The Verdict Is In

December 30, 2025 wasn't close. Across 333 days of tracked wait time data—over 4.1 million individual data points—this single Tuesday between Christmas and New Year's crowned itself the undisputed busiest day in Walt Disney World history for 2025. Hollywood Studios posted a resort-high 65-minute median wait across all attractions. EPCOT hit 40 minutes. Even Magic Kingdom, the park designed to absorb massive crowds, registered 35-minute medians park-wide.

But here's the surprise that upends conventional wisdom: July 4th, the day everyone assumes will be a nightmare, posted wait times comparable to a sleepy Wednesday in September. Magic Kingdom's median that day? Just 20 minutes. Hollywood Studios? 15 minutes. The data reveals that holiday week timing—specifically the narrow window between Christmas and New Year's—generates crowd levels that summer holidays simply don't match.

Methodology

This analysis covers 333 days of 2025 queue data from January through December (October data unavailable due to a gap in collection). We analyzed 4,135,763 posted wait time samples across all four Walt Disney World theme parks. For year-over-year comparisons with 2024, we restricted analysis to months with complete data in both years: January, February, August, September, November, and December.

The Definitive Park-by-Park Breakdown

Magic Kingdom

Magic Kingdom delivered consistently manageable crowds for most of 2025. Ten different days posted 10-minute median waits, all concentrated in June through September and two surprise December dates (December 11 and November 30). The January 24 Friday bucked the post-holiday slowdown with elevated waits—likely driven by runDisney Marathon Weekend, which fills Walt Disney World resorts with race participants and their families.

Year-over-year: Magic Kingdom median waits remained flat comparing equivalent months in 2024 and 2025. December posted a 33% increase (15 minutes to 20 minutes), but January actually dropped 25% (20 minutes to 15 minutes).

Hollywood Studios

Hollywood Studios emerged as the year's clear outlier—and the story isn't good for guests. Comparing equivalent months, Hollywood Studios median waits jumped 50% from 20 minutes in 2024 to 30 minutes in 2025. August saw a staggering 67% increase (15 to 25 minutes). November and December both climbed 20-40%.

The explanation lies in Hollywood Studios' attraction portfolio. The park has the highest concentration of headliner attractions (Rise of the Resistance, Slinky Dog Dash, Tower of Terror, Rock 'n' Roller Coaster, Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway) competing for the same guest base—and fewer "capacity eaters" to absorb demand.

EPCOT

EPCOT maintained remarkable consistency throughout 2025. Fifteen different days posted 10-minute medians, spread across every season. The park's balance of attractions, festivals, and dining options creates crowd-dispersing opportunities that keep wait times predictable even when attendance is high.

Year-over-year: EPCOT medians held steady with two exceptions—August and September both jumped from 10 to 15 minutes (50% increases in posted times, though the absolute increase was just 5 minutes).

Animal Kingdom

Animal Kingdom continues to be the most timing-sensitive park. December 2025 saw a 67% increase over December 2024 (15 to 25 minute median), while September dropped 33% (15 to 10 minutes). The park's shorter operating hours concentrate guests into fewer hours, amplifying both peaks and valleys.

Signature Attraction Deep Dive

The four signature attractions—Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind, Rise of the Resistance, and Avatar Flight of Passage—define the Disney World experience. Here's how they performed.

Avatar Flight of Passage

Flight of Passage remains Walt Disney World's most demanding standby wait. The contrast between its best and worst days is staggering: a 155-minute swing from peak to trough. September stands out as the window when this attraction becomes genuinely accessible to standby riders.

Year-over-year: Flight of Passage median waits dropped 20% in comparable months (75 to 60 minutes)—the largest improvement of any signature attraction.

Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance

April 15, a Tuesday during spring break season, posted Rise of the Resistance's highest waits of the year—not the Christmas holidays. This aligns with spring break crowd patterns when Springtime Surprise runDisney race weekend draws additional guests.

Year-over-year: Rise of the Resistance dropped 8% in comparable months (60 to 55 minute median).

Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind

Guardians' August 9 peak is the third anniversary of the attraction's opening—a reminder that Disney superfans track these dates. The attraction's 2025 full-year median of 70 minutes makes it EPCOT's most demanding standby commitment.

(Note: 2024 Guardians data was incomplete, precluding reliable year-over-year comparison.)

Seven Dwarfs Mine Train

Seven Dwarfs Mine Train's January 24 peak (Marathon Weekend Friday) outpaced even the holiday crush—a 125-minute median that day exceeded December 30's 90 minutes. For families targeting this attraction, the Marathon Weekend dates are the worst time of year.

Year-over-year: Seven Dwarfs dropped 9% in comparable months (55 to 50 minute median).

The Biggest Surprises of 2025

1. July 4th Was a Ghost Town

Independence Day 2025 posted wait times equivalent to a typical September Wednesday. Magic Kingdom hit just a 20-minute park-wide median—40% below its December peaks. The data suggests guests avoid this date assuming it'll be crowded, creating a self-correcting crowd pattern.

2. Hollywood Studios Became the Hardest Park

In 2024, all four parks posted similar wait time medians in comparable months. By 2025, Hollywood Studios had separated from the pack with a 50% year-over-year increase. Guests planning Studios-heavy itineraries now face structurally longer waits than the other three parks.

3. Oga's Cantina Exploded

The single biggest year-over-year increase for any attraction: Oga's Cantina rose from a 10-minute median wait in 2024 to 35 minutes in 2025—a 250% increase. The Star Wars bar experience that once felt accessible now requires genuine commitment.

4. Classic Attractions Got Easier

While headliners held steady or climbed, several classic attractions saw meaningful decreases. Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run dropped 25% (40 to 30 minutes). Kilimanjaro Safaris fell 25% (40 to 30 minutes). Jungle Navigation Co. Skipper Canteen's wait was cut in half (20 to 10 minutes).

5. 82% of Days Were "Easy"

Of 333 tracked days, 272 (82%) posted park-wide median waits of 20 minutes or less. Only 12 days (3.6%) exceeded 30-minute medians. The extreme crowding is concentrated in a tiny fraction of the calendar—primarily the Christmas-to-New-Year's window and select spring break dates.

Day-of-Week Patterns Hold

Animal Kingdom shows the most dramatic day-of-week sensitivity: Saturday waits are double Wednesday waits. For this park specifically, midweek visits deliver a fundamentally different experience.

What This Means for 2026

The patterns are clear. September continues to offer the best overall combination of low crowds, full attraction availability, and reasonable weather trade-offs. The Christmas week between December 26-31 should be avoided unless you're prepared for peak-of-peak conditions.

Hollywood Studios requires more intentional planning than the other parks. Lightning Lane investments at this park yield higher returns than equivalent purchases elsewhere.

And the conventional wisdom about "busy" days needs updating. runDisney Marathon Weekend generates higher signature attraction waits than the Fourth of July. The Tuesday after Christmas outpaces most summer Saturdays. Calendar timing trumps calendar perception.

Data Limitations

This analysis covers January-September and November-December 2025; October data was unavailable. Year-over-year comparisons are restricted to months with complete data in both years (January, February, August, September, November, December). Guardians of the Galaxy had insufficient 2024 data for reliable comparison. Some individual attraction data points may reflect temporary closures or system anomalies.

The Bottom Line

Walt Disney World in 2025 was easier than most guests expected—82% of days posted 20-minute-or-under medians. But the peaks were peakier: December 30's 65-minute Hollywood Studios median and 180-minute Flight of Passage days represent experiences dramatically different from the September 30-minute alternatives.

The difference between a great Disney day and a challenging one isn't luck—it's data. Know when to go, and the parks deliver.

These patterns aren't obvious without analyzing millions of data points. Lightning Brain surfaces the insights that transform your Disney day. Available now at lightningbrain.app, and coming soon to the iOS App Store.